Sunday May 20, 2012

A Glimpse Into a New Era?

Book Review: The Third Industrial Revolution by Jeremy Rifkin

Many of us have that feeling that things just don’t work as well as they used to, and there doesn’t seem to be any means of fixing them. Whether it’s maintaining the kind of jobs that grew and sustained the great middle-class of America, or the political processes that were supposed to give “the people” a say in how things would go, nothing seems to be working like it did before. In his book titled The Third Industrial Revolution author Jeremy Rifkin outlines a strong case that these feelings are a legitimate assessment of a moment in history where mankind is moving from “The Carbon Era” that supported the large scale, centralized, hierarchical command and control that underpinned the Second Industrial Revolution, to a distributed and cooperative Third Industrial Revolution (TIR) based on internet communications technology and renewable energies. Rifkin coins the term the “Intergrid” to describe the technology behind this concept.

Rifkin sites many guideposts for the end of the Carbon Era, such as “peak oil” and climate change, but he points to the economic crisis beginning in 2008 as the most telling. By Rifkin’s analysis, the popping of the mortgage bubble in April of that year was not the event but the aftershock. The significant event was $147 a barrel oil in the preceding 6 months. Housing, roads, easy access to credit, and the internal combustion engine are all tightly linked in the carbon-centric era of the 20th century, and all came unglued at the same time due to the prohibitive cost of oil.

In the emerging TIR, Rifkin foresees a “five pillar” underpinning based on renewable energy to include: Transforming the building stock of every continent into micro-power plants to collect renewable energies on site; Deploying hydrogen and other storage technologies in every building throughout the infrastructure to store intermittent energies; Using Internet technology to transform the power grid of every continent into an energy-sharing “Intergrid” that acts just like the internet (when millions of buildings are generating a small amount of energy locally, on site, they can sell the surplus back to the grid and share electricity with their continental neighbors), and; Transitioning the transportation fleet to electric plug-in and fuel cell vehicles that can buy and sell electricity (cars idle 92% of the time can create more energy than they need) on a smart, continental, interactive power grid.

Throughout his thesis, Rifkin sees a retrenchment from “globalization” and its dependence on the hierarchical strategies of the second industrial period, to “continentalization” that affords continental neighbors the ability to form the kinds of physical Intergrid connections necessary for a distributive and collaborative networking according to their strengths and strategic vision. 

The TIR will be the harbinger of political changes as well, says Rifkin. In the TIR the designations of left and right or socialist and capitalist will become obsolete. The political struggle of the time will be between those clinging to the centralized and authoritarian structures of the 20th century, and those advocating the move to the distributive and collaborative vision embodied in the “five pillar” strategy. This drama will likely play out in the kinds of public policy supported by the various governments of the world. Will there be large “mirror farms” selling power back to the people via a modernized grid, or will it be the distributive model where individuals are both buyers and sellers to the Intergrid? 

Although favoring the “collaborative/distributive” model Rifkin foresees the TIR creating a tail wind of job creation and development that the Carbon Era can no longer provide. As a prominent consultant on the subject of the TIR, Rifkin sees that the other great continents of the world are well ahead at moving to this future then is North and South America. As the biggest economic winners in the Carbon Era, North America seems to be most resistant to moving aggressively to the coming realities. Rifkin sees that much of the effort in TIR thinking in North America is spent in attempting to define it within the boundaries of Carbon Era constructs; big, centralized, and hierarchical.

One argument often trotted out in the discussion of “alternative energy” as a power source for homes and transportation is the cost. It is a common meme that the cost is prohibitively high. “The cost of photovoltaic (PV) electricity is expected to decline at a rate of 8% per year, halving the cost of generation every 8 years. With electricity rates expected to rise at a moderate 5%, it is expected that PV will reach grid parity across all European markets by 2012” says Rifkin. By “grid parity” he’s referring to the cost of producing electricity by PV or by a carbon-centric means as being the same.

After reading The Third Industrial Revolution (lent through Willard Library's Best Sellers program), this reporter was eager to see what was available locally in the way of workshops or projects where one could learn some practical TIR skills. I first looked in KCC’s catalog for a workshop in “alternative energies”; there were none offered. Next I spoke to William (Bill) Phillips, CEO of Neighborhoods Inc.,  inquiring whether that organization had any pilot projects along this line (like the robust program in alternative energy Ypsilanti); but again to no avail. The search continues.

The book is a good read given your tolerance for the wonkiness of technology and politics. It is certainly a must for anyone struggling with understanding the intractable difficulties of our time and looking for a road map for the future.

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